Terms and conditions
To use this melanoma risk calculator you must agree with the following terms and
conditions of use.
The calculator is not intended to be used as a substitute for an independent
health professional's advice. disclaimer for more information.
Emily's risk assessment tool aims to give an estimation of an individual's risk of
developing melanoma over a 5 year period.
This model does not predict mortality or the risk of spread of melanoma once diagnosed.
The model is designed for use by doctors in the clinical setting to assist in the
communication
of risk to their patients. It is highly recommended that you discuss your personal risk
factors
and results of your risk assessment with your doctor.
Australian immigrants may be at lower risk of melanoma compared to individuals born in
Australia.
Melanoma risk is very low for Indigenous and darker skinned Australians. Our tool provides a
crude
guide only for such individuals.
During the development of this model, we have highlighted shortfalls in our current
understanding
of some risk factors, namely past history of melanoma, risk for number of family members
affected,
and number of non-melanoma skin cancers. This tool may be updated as new information becomes
available.
For information on risk factors not currently included in this risk model,
please click here .
This model needs to be validated in order to find values that define risk groups
appropriately
in the Australian setting.
Disclaimer
In general, it is not the intention of the VMS to provide specific medical advice to users of its web site, but rather to provide users with information to help them better understand their health and the current range of approaches related to cancer treatment, prevention, screening, and supportive care. The VMS urges users to consult with a qualified physician for diagnosis and for answers to their personal medical questions.
The VMS is not responsible for transmissions users may receive from linked, external web sites.
Factors not considered
In this calculator some factors have not been included:
Ethnicity
Australian immigrants may be at lower risk of melanoma compared to individuals born in Australia. Age at arrival in Australia is thought to be the main factor affecting level of risk in immigrants.
Melanoma risk is very low for indigenous Australians as well as immigrants with skin phototype IV to VI. Our tool provides a crude guide only for such individuals.
Phototype and sun exposure history
Inability to tan has been shown to have the strongest relationship to melanoma of all non-naevus risk factors, however, it tells us little about sun protection behaviour. We do know that UV exposure correlates well with latitude. Given that tanning ability and sun exposure history are prone to recall and reporting bias, we selected latitude to reflect the higher incidence of melanoma in northern states which was most likely due to sun exposure.
Immunosuppression, sunbed use and phototherapy
These risk factors were not included given the small number of studies available from which to draw conclusions and the limited population for whom they are relevant.
Personal details
Age *
Please select
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
The risk of developing melanoma increases with age, especially in males over 60. Melanoma is rare
under 15 years of age.
In Australia, melanoma is the most common cancer among those aged 15-59.
Gender *
Please select
Female
Male
Australia and New Zealand have the highest rates of melanoma in the world. In Australia, 1 in 14
males and 1 in 22 females will develop invasive melanoma in their lifetime (to age 85).
Melanoma is now the third most common malignancy in Australia for both sexes, behind colorectal,
breast and prostate cancer. Incidence is rising steadily at 3-4% per year. The rise in incidence
is much steeper in men than women.
Melanoma is most commonly found on the trunk in males and limbs in females.
Latitude
In which latitude zone have you spent most of your life? *
Please select
North
Central
South
Your latitude of residence is where you have spent the majority of your lifetime. In Australia,
incidence of melanoma increases with proximity to the equator.
Latitude of residence correlates highly with UV exposure even though it does not tell us about an
individual's sun seeking behaviour. The effect of latitude is greatest on skin areas
intermittently exposed to the sun.
For the purposes of this risk model, Australia has been divided into 3 zones based on latitudes
of the eastern states.
Complexion
Freckles*
Please select
None to a few
Moderate to many
Multiple freckles on the forearm.
Multiple freckles on the back.
Freckles are different from moles. They are usually found on the face and shoulders. They are
more common in children and those with red hair, and fair skin. They fade in the winter months
and are more numerous in individuals living closer to the equator.
Hair Colour*
Please select
Dark
Brown
Blond
Red
There is considerable correlation between hair colour, eye colour, and skin colour. Of these,
hair colour is perhaps most accurately assessed and red hair has been linked with a known
genetic marker of melanoma risk.
Hair colour at age 20 should be used to calculate risk. Redheads have approximately three times
the risk of darker haired people. Blond or fair haired people have 1.5 times the risk.
Personal History
Personal history of melanoma*
Please select
No
Yes
If you have had a melanoma in the past, it is important to note that this risk model does not
calculate your risk of developing metastatic disease (ie. tumour spread) from that melanoma.
It
will only assist in calculating your risk of developing a new melanoma.
The risk of developing a second melanoma is in the order of 0.5% per year (or 4.5% risk over
10
years)12 . Risk for a further melanoma
increases progressively with increasing numbers of new melanomas. If you have had 2
melanomas
the risk for a third is of the order of 3% per year.
The risk of a second melanoma is higher in males over 70. Those diagnosed with their first
melanoma before age 45 have about twice the risk of developing a second compared to the
older
group.
Incidence of a second melanoma also peaks around the ages of 25-34, which may reflect their
occurrence in individuals from melanoma prone families who tend to develop multiple
melanomas
earlier in life. It has been reported that 10.5% of people with multiple melanoma have a
positive family history.
Personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer*
Please select
No
Yes
A large Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) on the back with a smaller BCC
below
it
A Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) on the ear.
Basal cell carcinomas, or 'rodent ulcers', are the most common malignancy in white
populations (view image ). They are usually pink or
'pearly' slow growing tumours, most often on the head or neck. They rarely spread to
other
organs, but can become ulcerated and cause problems locally. Squamous cell carcinomas
are
usually scaly, raised and may ulcerate (view
image ). Both basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas are important risk factors
for
melanoma. They indicate a degree of UV exposure and may indicate a loss of the body's
inbuilt surveillance against melanoma development.
If you are concerned about any new or changing skin lesion, you should consult your
doctor.
Family History
Family history of melanoma*
Please select
No
Yes
A positive family history is having one or more first degree relatives affected with melanoma
(parent, sibling, child).
Family history is a complex risk factor for melanoma. Family members not only share genetics,
but
usually grow up in the same environment with similar sun exposure. Despite this, studies
consistently show that melanoma in a first degree relative increases risk of melanoma
approximately two fold.
Melanoma risk increases if there are more family members affected. Individuals with known
genetic
mutations that predispose to melanoma make up a small proportion (around 2%) of individuals
with
a positive family history.
Your risk assessment
Your risk of developing melanoma over the next five years has been estimated as low , or similar to others with few or no risk factors. This does not mean that you will never develop melanoma.
Your risk of developing melanoma over the next five years has been estimated as moderate compared to others with few or no risk factors. This does not necessarily mean that you will develop melanoma in your lifetime.
Your risk of developing melanoma over the next five years has been estimated as high compared to others with few or no risk factors. This does not necessarily mean that you will develop melanoma in your lifetime.
A variety of approaches including total body photography and other imaging techniques have been shown to enhance early diagnosis in high risk individuals.
These approaches should be discussed with your doctor.
Your risk of developing melanoma over the next five years has been estimated as very high compared to others with few or no risk factors. This does not necessarily mean that you will develop a melanoma in your lifetime. Given your increased risk, you should consult your doctor about an appropriate surveillance strategy.
A variety of approaches including total body photography and other imaging techniques have been shown to enhance early diagnosis in high risk individuals.
These approaches should be discussed with your doctor.
With a past history of melanoma, your risk of developing a second (new) melanoma is in the order of 0.5% per year (or 4.5% risk over 10 years)12 .
Given your increased risk, you should consult your doctor about an appropriate surveillance strategy.
This risk assessment was based on the following information you supplied.
1 in 14 Australian males and 1 in 22 females will develop melanoma in their lifetime (to age 85)11 . Despite increasing awareness, the number of people affected by melanoma each year continues to rise. If a melanoma is caught in its early stages, the risk of it spreading and causing death is low. Early detection is, therefore, crucial.
This model does not predict mortality or the risk of spread of melanoma once diagnosed.
What can you do?
Some risk factors, such as complexion, hair colour, family history are not able to be changed. Being aware of our individual risk factors is the first step towards detecting a melanoma early if one does arise.
Be sun smart:
Protect you skin! The Australian sun can be harsh, not only in the middle of summer. Sunburns often occur on overcast days. Sun protection with a hat, sunscreen, sunglasses and protective clothing is important. People with fairer skin will tend to burn more easily, even after 10-15 minutes of sun exposure.
Painful or blistering sunburns increase your risk of melanoma. Intermittent sun exposure (for example with sun holidays) also increases your risk compared to a more stable level of sun exposure.
Studies show that solarium use may increase your risk of melanoma. Sun beds should be avoided.
The sun does have beneficial effects, especially in the production of Vitamin D for bone strength and good health. Adequate Vitamin D levels can be obtained without tanning or burning.
For more information visit www.sunsmart.com.au .
Early detection:
Be familiar with what is on your skin. You can do this by standing in front of the mirror and checking each body part systematically; feet, legs, bottom, back, abdomen, chest, arms, neck, face, scalp. Ask a family member to check your back and scalp as these areas are difficult to do yourself. Any change in size, shape, colour or elevation of a mole should be brought to the attention of your doctor.
Get into the habit of checking your skin at the change of each season.
What does a melanoma look like?
When checking your skin for melanoma, your doctor will be looking for any of the following features:
Asymmetry
Border irregularity
Colour variation
Diameter (large)
Elevated
Firm
Growing
If you are concerned about any new or changing mole, you should see your doctor.
An early melanoma. This mole developed a darker spot at one edge.
Nodular (raised) melanoma. This was a new mole which became elevated / raised.
A melanoma. This is a large, asymmetrical lesion with irregular borders and different colours.