Terms and conditions
To use this melanoma risk calculator you must agree with the following terms and conditions of use.
The calculator is not intended to be used as a substitute for an independent
health professional's advice.
Please read the disclaimer for more information.
Emily's risk assessment tool aims to give an estimation of an individual's risk of developing melanoma over a 5 year period.
This model does not predict mortality or the risk of spread of melanoma once diagnosed.
The model is designed for use by doctors in the clinical setting to assist in the communication of risk to their patients. It is highly recommended that you discuss your personal risk factors and results of your risk assessment with your doctor.
Australian immigrants may be at lower risk of melanoma compared to individuals born in Australia. Melanoma risk is very low for Indigenous and darker skinned Australians. Our tool provides a crude guide only for such individuals.
During the development of this model, we have highlighted shortfalls in our current understanding of some risk factors, namely past history of melanoma, risk for number of family members affected, and number of non-melanoma skin cancers. This tool
may be updated as new information becomes available.
For information on risk factors not currently included in this risk model,
please click here.
This model needs to be validated in order to find values that define risk groups appropriately in the Australian setting.
Disclaimer
In general, it is not the intention of the VMS to provide specific medical advice to users of its web site, but rather to provide users with information to help them better understand their health and the current range of approaches related to cancer
treatment, prevention, screening, and supportive care. The VMS urges users to consult with a qualified physician for diagnosis and for answers to their personal medical questions.
The VMS is not responsible for transmissions users may receive from linked, external web sites.
Factors not considered
In this calculator some factors have not been included:
Ethnicity
Australian immigrants may be at lower risk of melanoma compared to individuals born in Australia. Age at arrival in Australia is thought to be the main factor affecting level of risk in immigrants.
Melanoma risk is very low for indigenous Australians as well as immigrants with skin phototype IV to VI. Our tool provides a crude guide only for such individuals.
Phototype and sun exposure history
Inability to tan has been shown to have the strongest relationship to melanoma of all non-naevus risk factors, however, it tells us little about sun protection behaviour. We do know that UV exposure correlates well with latitude. Given that tanning
ability and sun exposure history are prone to recall and reporting bias, we selected latitude to reflect the higher incidence of melanoma in northern states which was most likely due to sun exposure.
Immunosuppression, sunbed use and phototherapy
These risk factors were not included given the small number of studies available from which to draw conclusions and the limited population for whom they are relevant.
Your risk assessment
Your risk of developing melanoma over the next five years has been estimated as low, or similar to others with few or no risk factors. This does not mean that you will never develop melanoma.
Your risk of developing melanoma over the next five years has been estimated as moderate compared to others with few or no risk factors. This does not necessarily mean that you will develop melanoma in your lifetime.
Your risk of developing melanoma over the next five years has been estimated as high compared to others with few or no risk factors. This does not necessarily mean that you will develop melanoma in your lifetime.
A variety of approaches including total body photography and other imaging techniques have been shown to enhance early diagnosis in high risk individuals. These approaches should be discussed with your doctor.
Your risk of developing melanoma over the next five years has been estimated as very high compared to others with few or no risk factors. This does not necessarily mean that you will develop a melanoma in your
lifetime. Given your increased risk, you should consult your doctor about an appropriate surveillance strategy.
A variety of approaches including total body photography and other imaging techniques have been shown to enhance early diagnosis in high risk individuals. These approaches should be discussed with your doctor.
With a past history of melanoma, your risk of developing a second (new) melanoma is in the order of 0.5% per year (or 4.5% risk over 10 years)12. Given your increased risk, you should consult your doctor about an appropriate surveillance
strategy.
This risk assessment was based on the following information you supplied.
1 in 14 Australian males and 1 in 22 females will develop melanoma in their lifetime (to age 85)11. Despite increasing awareness, the number of people affected by melanoma each year continues to rise. If a melanoma is caught in its early
stages, the risk of it spreading and causing death is low. Early detection is, therefore, crucial.
This model does not predict mortality or the risk of spread of melanoma once diagnosed.
What can you do?
Some risk factors, such as complexion, hair colour, family history are not able to be changed. Being aware of our individual risk factors is the first step towards detecting a melanoma early if one does arise.
Be sun smart:
Protect you skin! The Australian sun can be harsh, not only in the middle of summer. Sunburns often occur on overcast days. Sun protection with a hat, sunscreen, sunglasses and protective clothing is important. People with fairer skin will tend
to burn more easily, even after 10-15 minutes of sun exposure.
Painful or blistering sunburns increase your risk of melanoma. Intermittent sun exposure (for example with sun holidays) also increases your risk compared to a more stable level of sun exposure.
Studies show that solarium use may increase your risk of melanoma. Sun beds should be avoided.
The sun does have beneficial effects, especially in the production of Vitamin D for bone strength and good health. Adequate Vitamin D levels can be obtained without tanning or burning.
For more information visit www.sunsmart.com.au.
Early detection:
Be familiar with what is on your skin. You can do this by standing in front of the mirror and checking each body part systematically; feet, legs, bottom, back, abdomen, chest, arms, neck, face, scalp. Ask a family member to check your back and scalp
as these areas are difficult to do yourself. Any change in size, shape, colour or elevation of a mole should be brought to the attention of your doctor.
Get into the habit of checking your skin at the change of each season.
What does a melanoma look like?
When checking your skin for melanoma, your doctor will be looking for any of the following features:
- Asymmetry
- Border irregularity
- Colour variation
- Diameter (large)
- Elevated
- Firm
- Growing
If you are concerned about any new or changing mole, you should see your doctor.
An early melanoma. This mole developed a darker spot at one edge.
Nodular (raised) melanoma. This was a new mole which became elevated / raised.
A melanoma. This is a large, asymmetrical lesion with irregular borders and different colours.